Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
